Australia heads to record winter crop planting
Australia’s farmers are heading towards a record-high winter crop planting this year, Rabobank says in its newly-released 2025/26 Australian Winter Crop Outlook writes Vitor Pistoia*.
The annual outlook says the nation’s grain growers are expected to plant an estimated 24.5 million hectares of winter crop this year, up 0.8 per cent on last season.
The forecast increase is largely driven by good soil moisture levels in northern NSW and Queensland, as well as a positive gross margin outlook for most crop types.
Area planted to crops is expected to be up in all states, except for South Australia where many regions have been struggling with severe drought conditions.
Victoria, which has also been impacted by drought in many western parts of the state is expected to see cropping area edge up only fractionally.
The overall rise in national planted area is expected to benefit most crops, except for wheat, where area is forecast to drop especially in Western Australia - impacted by rising fertiliser prices and less optimistic market prospects.
Despite the projected overall increase in Australia’s winter cropping area, RaboResearch is currently forecasting total production for the 2025/26 harvest to come in below last year, at a base case of 53.9 million tonnes, compared with 59.7 million tonnes for last year’s crop.
Report author, RaboResearch senior analyst Vitor Pistoia says Australia’s 2025/26 winter cropping area may be the largest on record if a seasonal break comes soon in South Australia and western Victoria.
“Summer rainfall in Queensland and northern NSW was above average, leading to flooding in some cropping regions and this may delay sowing, but is supportive for another season of large sowing areas,” Vitor says.
“WA’s southern cropping areas also received timely rainfall to have a good start to the season.
“Other cropping regions around the country though, did not get the same summer luck. Soil-moisture levels are generally insufficient, especially in South Australia, western parts of Victoria and southern NSW.”
As of mid-May, the weather outlook for the season ahead is for average rainfall for the eastern states and some chance of above average rainfall for Western Australia by springtime, he says.
Area planted to wheat is expected to decrease 5.2 per cent on the previous year, to 12.6 million hectares, the report says.
“Overall, this decline in wheat planting is attributed to rising fertiliser prices and less enthusiasm about the outlook for wheat prices,” Vitor says.
“Crop rotation is also a factor, as last year’s late seasonal break led to wheat replacing canola and pulses at the eleventh hour and those farmers will now be looking to plant a different crop.”
RaboResearch expects cropping area for barley to increase 9.8 per cent year-on-year to 4.5 million hectares, supported by strong demand for livestock feed from the local animal protein sector.
“Despite gross margins for barley expected to be within historical averages, it is a promising outlook for regions that can achieve higher yields with barley than wheat, as the price difference between the two commodities is comparatively small,” Vitor says.
Canola planting is projected to remain virtually stable – with just minimal forecast area growth of 0.4 per cent on last year to 3.2 million hectares, seeing increases in Western Australia and declines in the eastern states.
“There is a supportive outlook for canola, although the price direction varies between genetically modified (GM) and non-GM canola,” Vitor says.
“Geopolitical turmoil is pressuring the GM-canola market, while demand from the EU is driving non-GM fundamentals.”
Pulse plantings are also expected to be up considerably – by 12.5 per cent on last season – to 3.4 million hectares, with Western Australia and Queensland likely to lead the expansion in pulse area.
This is driven by tariff announcements in key pulse markets – including India, a country crucial to Australian pulse exports – that indicate demand will remain steady.
Queensland looks to be the big winner in terms of increased cropping area, with excellent soil moisture setting the stage for a promising season, with the area under cropping forecast to expand 8.4 per cent to 1.67 million hectares.
Western Australia is expected to be the other big winner, with cropping area projected to increase 2.1 per cent to 8.83 million hectares.
NSW is a mixed bag with positive soil moisture in the northern parts of the state, after a wet summer, driving expansion while cropping areas in southern regions have been impacted by low soil-moisture levels.
Dry weather in the western parts of the state is seeing cropping programs across Victoria being diversified this season.
“While some farmers are going for a high input, high return approach, with crop rotation edging towards an evenly split ratio of canola and cereal cropping area, others are still using crop rotation as a tool for mitigating risk, with pulses and hay in the cropping mix as well,” Vitor says.
Overall, Victorian cropping area is expected to increase just 0.1 per cent on the previous season, to 3.61 million hectares.
Ongoing severe dry weather conditions in South Australia are expected to see the state’s cropped area decline this season, by 5.8 per cent to 3.55 million hectares, the report says.
*Vítor Pistoia works as an agriculture analyst with Rabobank in Sydney, covering land values, fertiliser, and crop protection products. He has a strong agronomic background. Previously, he worked as a farm input sales manager, as well as an agronomist with a major global brewing company across South America.
